Old Town Dia de los Muertos   Nov. 1-3
This free event will include the traditional candlelight procession on November 2nd. The celebration will continue throughout the weekend with street food, vendors and activities on San Diego Avenue. Many Old Town restaurants will be providing special menus and live music, along with activities for the entire family.
Contact: 619-291-4903 / www.oldtownsandiego.org

SD Zoo Safari Park Da de los Muertos   Nov. 1-3
A happy celebration full of mariachi music, dancing, and festive entertainment. Shopping, face painting, and, of course, plenty of amazing animals add to this family fun-filled event.
Contact: 619-231-1515 / www.sdzsafaripark.org

Escondido Da de los Muertos Festival   Nov. 1-4
Guests are invited to create altars to remember and honor their loved ones in a special area outside of the Centers museum; the event also features live music, traditional Mexican fare, sugar skull decorating, and more.
Time/Place: 5-9pm / California Center for the Arts

Contact: www.artcenter.org

San Diego Beer Week   Nov. 1-10
A 10-day celebration, promoting more than 130 independent craft breweries in San Diego County. Events are held throughout SD County at participating breweries, bars, and restaurants.
Contact: 858-581-7368 / www.sdbeer.com/sdbw

Escondido Tamale Festival   Nov. 2
Traditional, Gourmet & Vegetarian Tamales, Oaxacan, Banana Wrapped, Dulce, Smoked BBQ varieties. Craft Brews & Wine Garden. Grande Stage featuring Mariachis, Folklorico, Aztec, Latin Dance Performances, Youth Performances, Chihuahua Fashion Show. Hispanic Heritage Exhibits & Low Rider Car Club.
Time/Place: 11am-5pm / Grape Day Park

Contact: www.escondidotamalefestival.org

Bike the Coast   Nov. 2
Experience gorgeous riding on the Southern California coast with 100, 50 or 25 mile routes on Highway 101. Food, music, expo, shopping and fun!
Time/Place: 8am / Oceanside Pier

Contact: www.spectrumsportsevents.com

Carrera de los Muertos San Diego   Nov. 3
Enjoy a festive and scenic 5k or 10k run along downtowns San Diego Bay and stay to celebrate with mariachi, dancers and comida deliciosa!
Time/Place: 6:45am-12pm / Embarcadero Park South
Contact: www.losmuertos5k.com
Fallback Festival   Nov. 3
Travel back in time to enjoy our old west town! Pan for gold, saddle up on pony rides, and enjoy live entertainment.
Time/Place: 11am-4pm / Gaslamp Museum at the Davis-Horton House
Contact: 619-233-4692 / www.gaslampfoundation.org

Carlsbad Fall Village Faire   Nov. 3
Over 800 vendors will sell everything fathomable, including clothes, accessories, plants, household products, art, antiques and home decor. The international food court will feature more than 50 booths. The childrens area will entertain youngsters. The Rotary Club of Carlsbads beer and wine garden.
Time/Place: 8am-4pm / Grand Avenue between Carlsbad Blvd. & Jefferson St.
Contact: www.kennedyfaires.com/carlsbad

Fleet Week San Diego   Nov. 4-12
Honors and celebrates the men and women of the military through events that entertain and alliances that thank and support these heroes.

Time/Place: See website for schedule of events.
Contact: 619-858-1545 / www.fleetweeksandiego.org

Coronado Island Film Festival   Nov. 8-11
Parties, panels, exhibits, workshops, Special Events, celebrities, live performances, new films, filmmakers, treasured classics, interesting venues, awards, tributes, blooming gardens, beach walks, sunsets, friendly locals, and shops and restaurants for every taste, along with a wide variety of films by filmmakers from every level of the craft, from emerging student to seasoned pro.
Contact: www.coronadoislandfilmfest.com

Ride the Point Memorial Charity Bicycle Ride   Nov. 9
Ride the Point encompasses the most picturesque natural coastline in Southern California on exclusive routes along San Diego Bay and the Pacific Ocean.
Time/Place: 6am-12pm / Liberty Station

Contact: www.ridethepoint.org

Celebrate East County   Nov. 9
Wine, Beer, Food Tastings provided by our local Merchants. Music By: British Mania and Summer Love.
Time/Place: 1-5pm / 405 Ballad Street, El Cajon

Contact: www.eastcountychamber.org

UH Arts Open & Taste of University Heights   Nov. 10
Stroll through the quaint neighborhood sampling delicacies from University Heights diverse restaurants and enjoy a free self-guided tour of the arts.
Time/Place: 11am-4pm / Buddhas Light Bookstore: 4538 Park Blvd.
Contact: 619-297-3166 / www.uharts.org
Nasons Doggy Draft   Nov. 10
Were partnering with the San Diego Humane Society for a day filled with fuzzy faces, sloppy kisses and puppy touchdowns.
Time/Place: 11am-2pm / Nasons Beer Hall: 570 J Street

Contact: www.pendry.com

Silver Strand Half Marathon, 10 Miler & Veterans Day 5K   Nov. 10
Run, Walk, Skate, Roll, ElliptiGO with the waves of the Pacific Ocean on your right. The ONLY Run with with the waves of the Pacific Ocean on your right and the San Diego Bay on your left, finishing with a California Beach Party!
Time/Place: 7-11:30pm / Sunset Park, Coronado
Contact: 858-268-1250 / www.silverstrandhalf.com

San Diego Bay Wine & Food Festival   Nov. 10-17
Featuring dozens of events, hundreds of domestic and international wineries, the celebration of craft beer and spirits, local culinary legends and nationally recognized celebrities, and a Grand Tasting Finale.
Time/Place: Embarcadero Marina Park North
Contact: www.sandiegowineclassic.com

San Diego Veterans Day Parade   Nov. 11
See over 4,000 Veterans, Active Military, Bands, Floats and Civic Groups celebrate Veterans Day.
Time/Place: 10am-12pm / San Diego Embarcadero
Contact: 619-804-3200 / www.sdvetparade.org

Poway Veterans Day Ceremony   Nov. 11
oin VFW Post 7907 and the Poway Veterans Park Committee for a ceremony to honor those who selflessly served our Country.
Time/Place: 11am / Veterans Park

Contact: www.poway.org

Padres Pedal the Cause   Nov. 13-17
One of the top 15 cause-related cycling events in the country, bringing together a community of over 3,500 passionate riders, walkers and spinners to help find cures for cancer. There is also a 5k Walk/Run, Spin Classes and a Kids Challenge.
Time/Place: 8am-12:30pm / Petco Park
Contact: 619-510-4955 / www.gopedal.org/ridesandiego

Breast Cancer Cheering Station   Nov. 15
We will have a water, music and cheer station to root on the walkers, who will start their journeys at the Del Mar Fairgrounds. Volunteers decorate the street with pink balloons and ribbons, and hand out water to each walker.
Time/Place: 7:30-8:45am / Camino Del Mar

Contact: www.visitdelmarvillage.com
Bikes & Beer San Diego   Nov. 16
Ride 15 or 30 miles through the city of San Diego with a large group and enjoy some of the best sights of the city! The event benefits BikeSD to improve cycling conditions in San Diego. The post-ride festival will feature live music, food trucks, outside games and free beer!
Time/Place: 9:30am / Societe Brewing: 8262 Clairemont Mesa Blvd.
Contact: www.bikesandbeers.com

Wonderfront Music & Arts Festival   Nov. 22-24
A highly-anticipated 7+ stage, 95+ bands, 3-day music, culinary and arts festival. The festival offers diverse attractions including yacht parties, water sports, art installations, after-parties, a craft beer village and plenty of local flavors.
Time/Place: Broadway Pier to the Embarcadero Parks
Contact: 619-340-1070 / www.wonderfrontfestival.com

Mother Goose Parade   Nov. 24
The parade entries include spectacular motorized floats, glorious marching bands and drill units, eloquent equestrians, animated clowns, special characters, special guests, performing artists, celebrities, giant helium balloons, specialty vehicles, and of course, Santa Claus.
Time/Place: 1-3pm / El Cajon Blvd & W Main St
Contact: 619-333-0771 / www.mothergooseparade.org

Encinitas Holiday Street Fair   Nov. 24
With 450+ booths, plus dozens of unique downtown retailers. Enjoy music in The Lumberyard Courtyard and dance, music and other entertainment on the Community Stage next to Ace Hardware. Take your young ones to the Kids Zone and walk your furry friends into Dog Zone.
Time/Place: 9am-4pm / Coast Highway 101 between D and J Streets
Contact: 760-943-1950 / www.kennedyfaires.com/encinitas

San Diego Jazz Fest and Swing Extravaganza   Nov. 27-Dec. 1
Jazz bands and musicians from across the U.S. will perform. Festival presentations include great variety: trad, swing, boogie-woogie, ragtime, dixieland, gospel, rockabilly.
Time/Place: Town and Country Resort & Convention Center
Contact: 619-297-5277 / www.sdjazzfest.org

Running of the Turkeys 10K Trail Run   Nov. 28
The course will take you through beautiful Penasquitos Canyon. NO official entry fee; we would truly appreciate a minimum $20 donation for our partner charity Operation Rebound, a branch of the Challenged Athletes Foundation.
Time/Place: 7:30-10am / Torrey Hills Neighborhood Park
Contact: www.gutcheckfitness.com/turkey-trot-10k

Oside Turkey Trot   Nov. 28
10k Run, 5K Run/Walk and Senior 1 Mile. Event offers a costume contest, largest teams competition, fabulous live entertainment on the course and finisher medals for all participants. Free digital photos, medals, shirts, and timing to all registered participants. The event has raised over $321,500 for non-profits that serve Oside residents.
Time/Place: 6:45-11:30am / Oceanside Civic Center
Contact: 760-434-5255 / www.osideturkeytrot.com

San Diego Run for the Hungry 5K & 10K   Nov. 28
Benefiting the Jacobs & Cushman San Diego Food Bank. An added bonus to the event includes the participation of dogs, and each registered dog receives a bandana and dog treats along the course.
Time/Place: 7-10am / Westfield Horton Plaza Mall
Contact: www.sdrunforthehungry.org

Fallbrook Thanksgiving Day Turkey Trot   Nov. 28
Our goal is to raise funds for the Fallbrook Land Conservancy, Fallbrook Animal Sanctuary and the Fallbrook Community.
Time/Place: 8-10:30am / Grand Tradition Estate & Gardens
Contact: 760-468-0322 / www.fallbrookturkeytrot.com

Thank You Run 5K/10K and Kids Run   Nov. 28
Raises funds for Helens Closet and San Diegans suffering with ALS. All participants will receive a tech t-shirt, finishers medal, and 1 beer ticket for the beer garden (21+).
Time/Place: 7-10am / 4S Ranch Community Park
Contact: 858-449-1101 / www.sandiegorunningco.com/thankyourun

Coronado 5K Turkey Trot   Nov. 28
Join the Coronado Unit of the Rady Childrens Hospital Auxiliary for our 5K to benefit Rady Childrens Hospital.
Time/Place: 8-11am / Tidelands Park

Contact: www.runsignup.com

Surfin Santa Arrival   Nov. 30
Visitors can pose for free pictures with Santa on his giant surfboard, riding a six-foot wave. A festive parade along the boardwalk, live street performers and a wide variety of unique, local shops will keep visitors busy throughout the event.
Time/Place: 1-5pm / Seaport Village
Contact: 619-530-0704 / www.seaportvillage.com

Julian Country Christmas Tree Lighting   Nov. 30
The holiday season in Julian also offers an opportunity to shop at small boutiques and craft shows, without crowds or lines, for one-of-a-kind gifts. Be in Pioneer Park By 5:30pm in order to be sure you do not miss the tree lighting.
Time/Place: 2-7pm / Julian Pioneer Park
Contact: 760-765-1857 / www.visitjulian.com

Taste of Mission Hills   Oct. 2
25 participating purveyors of delicious tastes, including long established and very new arrivals.
Time/Place: 5-9pm / Various locations throughout Mission Hills
Contact: 619-559-9502 / www.missionhillsbid.com/taste

La Mesa Oktoberfest   Oct. 4-6
Hundreds of exhibitors, family friendly activities, German food, music, dancing, games and of course beer. Entertainment and fun activities for kids of all ages.
Time/Place: Fri 4-10pm, Sat 10am-10pm, Sun 10am-6pm / La Mesa Village
Contact: www.lamesaoktoberfest.org

Carlsbad Oktoberfest   Oct. 5
The Carlsbad Rotary Oktoberfest, a fall tradition, will bring thousands of people to enjoy German food (and beer!), live music, and entertainment for children.
Time/Place: 12-9pm / Holiday Park

Contact: www.rotaryoktoberfest.org

Pacific BeachFest   Oct. 5
A fish taco contest, surf competition, beach volleyball, craft beer, kids activities and music!
Time/Place: 8am-7pm / Pacific Beach Boardwalk

Contact: www.pacificbeachfest.org

STOCKZILLA   Oct. 5-6
3,500 pounds of Catfish. Every Lake (1-7) will be stocked.  You do not need a state fishing license, just a permit from the General Store.  Adults $10, Jrs. & Seniors $6, and extra pole stamps $4.
Time/Place: 6am-6pm / Santee Lakes Recreation Preserve
Contact: 619-596-3141 / www.santeelakes.com

Taste of Rancho Santa Fe   Oct. 6
More than 700 guests will enjoy a feast from Rancho Santa Fes and beyonds most celebrated restaurants, Napa Valley and Sonoma wineries, breweries and other beverage vendors!
Time/Place: 4-7pm / The Inn at Rancho Santa Fe

Contact: www.tasteofrsf.org

Rancho Santa Fe Oktoberfest   Oct. 6
Beer, brats, polka band, auction, raffle and kids zone activities. This fundraiser will help Inspire, The Foundation for Education get one step closer to opening the new Carmel Valley Campus. $45 Adults / Under 12 FREE Admission.
Time/Place: 2-6pm / Rancho Santa Fe Garden Club

Contact: www.eventbrite.com

Taste of Coronado   Oct. 10
Enjoy amazing bites prepared by our local chefs.
Time/Place: 5-9pm / Coronado Historical Association, Coronado Museum of History & Art
Contact: www.atasteofcoronado.com

Ocean Beach Oktoberfest   Oct. 11-12
A two-day, eclectic, beachside festival with a variety of exciting activities, contests and entertainment.
Time/Place: Fri 3-11pm, Sat 9am-11pm / Newport Ave & Abbott St
Contact: www.oboktoberfest.com

Polish Festival   Oct. 11-13
Performances by Polish folk dancers and various musical bands. Delicious polish food and the best genuine imported polish beer.
Time/Place: St. Maximilian Kolbe Polish Roman Catholic Mission: 1735 Grand
Contact: www.polishmission.org

Carmel Valley Trail 5K, 10K and 15K   Oct. 12
A combination of single track and dirt service road trails through beautiful open spaces.
Time/Place: 6-10:30am / Torrey Highlands Community Park
Contact: www.enduranceraceseries.com/carmel-valley

Taste of North Park   Oct. 12
Enjoy 50+ food tastes from some of San Diegos best restaurants and craft beer samples from 15 local brewers.
Time/Place: 11am-3pm / University Ave & 30th St
Contact: 619-294-2501 / www.northparkmainstreet.com

La Jolla Art & Wine Festival   Oct. 12-13
Over 150 juried artists from around the globe, 3D chalk art displays, interactive art murals, non-stop live music, family art center, roving entertainment, gourmet food court, and a wine, craft beer, and spirits garden featuring local brews, distilleries and global wineries.
Time/Place: 10am-6pm / Girard Avenue & Prospect Street

Contact: www.ljawf.com

Latin American Art Fair   Oct. 12-14
Presents outdoor exhibits, painting, sculpture, photography and printmaking as well as folk art, crafts, performance and culinary arts of Latin American countries.
Time/Place: 11am-6pm / Bread & Salt: 1955 Julian Ave.
Contact: 619-752-6118 / www.latinamericanartfairsd.com
Raptor Ridge Half Marathon   Oct. 13
An out-n-back course that begins with 4.5 miles of flat and fast jeep road that winds east towards the San Diego Safari Park and Raptor Ridge.
Time/Place: 7am / San Dieguito River Park, Escondido
Contact: www.dirtdevilracing.com

San Diego International Film Festival   Oct. 15-20
The regions premier film event and one of the leading stops on the independent film circuit, with 200+ filmmakers gathering in San Diego to show their films every year.
Contact: 619-818-2221 / www.sdfilmfest.com

Borrego Days Desert Festival   Oct. 18-20
The festival has expanded to include a car show at The Mall on Saturday. Parade beginning with a fly-over of the State Park plane and local pilots on Saturday. Enjoy the music while perusing the array of artists, retail vendors, informational booths, delicious food offerings, and tasty treats.
Time/Place: Christmas Circle Park

Contact: 760-767-5555 / www.borregodays.com

Bulls of SantAgata Charge Little Italy   Oct. 19
Over 40 classic and rare Italian bulls, better known as Lamborghinis. An evening with souped up rides and musical entertainment for the whole family to enjoy.
Time/Place: 6-11pm / India St & W Fir St

Contact: www.littleitalysd.com

Ladies at the Lake Fall Market   Oct. 19
Shop from local women in business! There will be a variety of vendors with uniquely selected items, from Health & Beauty, Clothing, Jewelry, Holiday Gifts and so much more!
Time/Place: 9am-2pm / Santee Lakes Recreation Preserve
Contact: 619-258-4759 / www.santeelakes.com

Villains in the Village!  Oct. 19
Over 20 nefarious characters and uncanny activities will torment and trick thrill seekers of all ages.
Time/Place: 4-9pm / Third Avenue, Chula Vista
Contact: 619-422-1982 / www.thirdavenuevillage.com

La Vista Memorial Park and Mortuary Dia de los Muertos   Oct. 19
Food, music, artwalk, costumes, entertainment, artists and the always-popular altar contest and runway fashion show Catrina Contest.
Time/Place: 2-10pm / 3191 Orange Street, National City
Contact: 619-475-7770 / www.lavistamemorialpark.com
EastLake Cycle & 5K Run and Technology & Innovation Fair   Oct. 19
Provides kids the opportunity to meet with STEM/STEAM professionals and engage with activities and resources that will connect them to their future careers.
Time/Place: 6:30am-12pm / EastLake Middle School

Contact: www.eefkids.org

San Diego Triathlon Challenge   Oct. 20
Join 200 physically challenged athletes, 550 able-bodied athletes, celebrities, and sports legends as they complete a 1 mile ocean swim, 44 mile bike and 10 mile run on one of the most breathtaking courses in the country.
Time/Place: 6am-4pm / La Jolla Cove

Contact: www.challengedathletes.org

SaltDog Classic   Oct. 20
Music, fun, craft beverage, and local businesses coming together to bring north county San Diego to life. This year we are happy to support Rancho Coastal Humane Society.
Time/Place: 11am-5pm / 425 Santa Fe Drive, Encinitas
Contact: www.saltdogclassic.com

Escondido Grand Avenue Festival   Oct. 20
Live entertainment, over 400 vendors, childrens rides and activities, and food from around the world to the downtown tree-lined streets of Escondido.
Time/Place: 9am-5pm / Between Center City Pkwy and Ivy
Contact: 760-839-4777 / www.visitescondido.com

YMCA of San Diego County Tour de Cove   Oct. 20
A fun and sweat-drenching 4.5 hour stationary cycling marathon with 100 riders and over 50 challenged athletes.
Time/Place: 9am-1:30pm / Ellen Browning Scripps Park
Contact: 858-866-0959 / www.challengedathletes.org

Celebrate the Craft   Oct. 20
The finest food artisans demonstrating, discussing, and tasting their way through the vast array of premium food and wine products available.
Time/Place: 11:30am-3pm / The Lodge at Torrey Pines
Contact: 858-453-4420 / www.lodgetorreypines.com

Trick-or-Treat on India Street   Oct. 25
Bring their little monsters out in costume attire to this fun Halloween event to enjoy traditional trick-or-treating, as Little Italy businesses along historic India St open their doors.
Time/Place: 5:30-7:30pm / Piazza della Famiglia

Contact: www.littleitalysd.com

HauntFest on Main   Oct. 25
An exciting family friendly event with a pumpkin patch, costume contest, kidz zone, rides, entertainment and more!
Time/Place: 5-10pm / Downtown El Cajon

Contact: www.hauntfest.org

North Park Day of the Dead Festival   Oct. 26
Bringing together an array of Mexican-themed artisanal crafter purveyors from throughout the US, popular food trucks with a regional foodie-following, and a select choice of beer, mezcal, and tequila vendors in our spirit cantina.
Time/Place: 11am-5pm / North Park, San Diego
Contact: www.dayofthedeadfestivalnorthpark.com

WCKD Village   Oct. 26
San Diegos premier Halloween festival. Four radical concert stages featuring an eclectic lineup of hip-hop, open format, EDM and deep house. Play life-size interactive games and navigate around stilt walkers and fire-breathers.
Time/Place: 6pm-Midnight / East Village, Downtown San Diego
Contact: www.wckdvillage.com

Bubble RUN San Diego   Oct. 26
Clad in white t-shirts, adults, kids and strollers run, walk, dance and play across 3 miles of absolute fun! Then, at each kilometer, participants will run through the Foam Bogs where there is enough colored foam to cover you from head to toe!
Time/Place: 8am / NICU Amphitheatre, Chula Vista

Contact: www.bubblerun.com

Balboa Park Halloween Family Day   Oct. 26
Dozens of free craft projects for kids, Day of the Dead-themed displays and activities, costume contests and parades, carnival games with prizes, live entertainment, and food trucks.
Time/Place: 11am-4pm / Balboa Park
Contact: 619-239-0512 / www.balboaparkconservancy.org/halloween

City Heights Dia de los Muertos   Oct. 26
People of all cultures will come together for community altars, face painting, mask making, and prizes for the best catrina and catrin contest, plus dancing, singing and music.
Time/Place: 11am-6pm / Officer Jeremy Henwood Memorial Park
Contact: www.facebook.com/CityHeightsDiaDeLosMuertos

San Diego Mac n Cheese Fest   Oct. 26
The restaurants are selected from the regions top culinary talent and attendees can pair them alongside a collection of local craft beers, wines and other delicious beverages.
Time/Place: 11am-2pm / San Diego County Waterfront Park
Contact: 800-316-8559 / www.sandiegomacncheese.com

Row for the Cure, Susan G Komen   Oct. 27
Draws participants from various forms of watercraft including rowing, canoeing, outrigger canoeing, dragon boats, kayaking and SUPing.
Time/Place: 7am-12pm / Ski Beach, San Diego
Contact: 858-573-2760 / www.komensandiego.org/row

Oceanside Dia de los Muertos   Oct. 27
Free family-friendly event with entertainment, carnival rides, altar displays and a classic car show!
Time/Place: 10am-4pm / Mission San Luis Rey
Contact: 760-757-3651 / www.mslrdiadelosmuertos.com

Compass Family,

We’re heading into the fall market stronger than we’ve ever been, but there’s a lot of economic uncertainty swirling around in general. I’m hearing from agents across the country that your clients have a lot of questions about which way the economy is headed and a number of you have asked me for my thoughts about it.

I feel lucky to be able to talk directly to agents, employees and real-estate developers on the ground from the Bay Area to LA to Seattle to San Diego to Miami to Dallas to Chicago to Philly to Boston to the Hamptons to Nashville and beyond, as well as our investors and other industry experts.

Here are some things I’m hearing in those conversations that may be helpful to you as you run your business in the months ahead:

A recession is likely at some point — but no one knows for sure when it will hit. There are enough other indicators of a coming market correction, like the yield curve inverting and GDP growth slowing, that I’d be surprised if one never came. But don’t trust anyone who tells you they know when it will happen. The Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell just signaled on Friday that a recession is not imminent, and that we can expect slower but steady growth.

If a recession comes, it is very unlikely to be as rough on the housing market as the 2007-09 recession. The last recession was catastrophic for our industry — but it was also much, much worse than the average recession and much worse on the housing market in particular. Thanks to tighter lending standards and new regulations, the next contraction will likely be much milder.

Honest, direct communication with your clients is key. It is best to speak to clients with clear, fact-based, data-driven opinions to set realistic expectations. People can deal with reality as long as they don’t have to find it out later. But this clarity must be peppered with optimism. Clients look to their agents to be the calm force of reason in turbulent times.

Downturns and slowdowns are an opportunity for great agents to shine and grow their business. In weaker markets, sellers look for more experienced agents (like all of you) to guide them. These periods can test your abilities, but they also inspire you to elevate the quality of your service even further. Tougher markets don’t mean you will earn less or sell less necessarily, though you may have to work harder for the same amount of sales. And the best agents will even pick up market share. I’ve probably heard over 100 agents tell me that when downturns have happened, that’s when a lot of bad agents left the business and they grew their market share. Remember, we are coming off unusually strong markets.

Thriving in an uncertain or down/“normal” market is often about finding the right clients to partner with. Opportunities abound when a seller’s market turns into a buyer’s market — there are a lot of buyers on the sidelines who will spring into action if things turn — but only if you’re working with qualified and realistic sellers. No one likes uncertainty, but some people are able to adapt to it and others are paralyzed by it. The better you get to know your sellers’ psychology, the easier it will be to predict how they’ll react to changing conditions.

Throughout this macroeconomic uncertainty, 3 things matter more than ever:

  1. Price. It’s wise to put even more focus on pricing listings correctly — and in a bumpy market, pricing aggressively compared to your competition. These conversations can be challenging but the more data you bring to bear (which you can do with our CMA tool and by building custom Collections), the easier they’ll be. After you win the listing, your seller will appreciate the fact that you were straight with them up-front.
  2. Perfection. All images, staging, wording, social media, and everything else that the consumer sees must look excellent. The tougher the market, the smaller the margin for error. This is a prime opportunity to take advantage of Compass Concierge to help your client’s home look its absolute best and Coming Soon to help it get the attention it deserves. These programs are just as powerful in challenging markets as they are in strong markets — if not moreso.
  3. Patience. What might have taken days before may now take many weeks or even months. Exercise patience. Alert your clients to be patient. Again, while setting realistic expectations can be difficult in the moment, it builds your credibility in the long run.

The last thing to remember is that everyone at Compass is in your corner. We’re in it together and we’ve got your back. Let us know — your sales manager, your regional president, and me — if there are any additional ways we can support you or if we can help answer any other questions you’re getting from your clients.

Best,
Robert


Robert Reffkin | Founder & CEO

90 Fifth Avenue

New York, NY 10011

m: 917.841.5555

Del Mar Racing Season   Through Sep. 2
This season features the nations top race horses, trainers and jockeys, and plenty of fun in the sun.
Time/Place: See website for schedule. / Del Mar Thoroughbred Club
Contact: 858-755-1141 / www.dmtc.com

Barona Powwow   Aug. 30-Sep. 1
Join the Barona Band of Mission Indians for contest dancing in all categories, camping, drums and cultural immersion.
Time/Place: See website for schedule. / Barona Sports Park, Lakeside
Contact: 619-443-6612 / www.crazycrow.com

Labor Day Stickball Tournament   Aug. 31-Sep. 1
Columbia Street erupts with yelling and cheering for the stick ball teams, stirring up childhood memories.
Time/Place: 9am-5pm / Little Italy: State St & W Ash St
Contact: 619-233-3898 / www.littleitalysd.com

US Sand Sculpting Challenge & Dimensional Art Expo   Aug. 31-Sep. 2
The sculptures weigh over 10 tons, so we have over 1,000 works of art that you can fall in love with, buy and take home. Theres also live entertainment, a sand box and rides for kids, a dozen gourmet food trucks, a fantastic view of the bay and all the great stuff that you always find on the Embarcadero!
Time/Place: Sat & Sun 9am-7pm, Mon 9am-5pm / Broadway Pier and Landing
Contact: 619-980-6651 / www.ussandsculpting.com

Big SoCal Euro   Sep. 1
The event features more than 3,000 European cars from throughout the region. Bring your family to meet other car enthusiasts and enjoy raffles, drag racing, great food, automotive vendors, swap meet, afterparty and more.
Time/Place: 11am-6pm / SDCCU Stadium

Contact: www.big-euro.com

SD Architectural Foundation Tour of Del Mar   Sep. 4
Tour the Del Mar Civic Center and Town Hall, a 2018 Orchid winner. Tours will be led by The Miller Hull Partnership and Spurlock Landscape Architects.
Time/Place: 4:30-7pm / 1050 Camino Del Mar

Contact: www.sdarchitecture.org

Taste of Del Mar   Sep. 5
Explore 20+ culinary creations from local and award-winning restaurants, experience 10+ craft beer and wine Sip Stops, and enjoy live music.
Time/Place: 5-8pm / Downtown Del Mar Village
Contact: 858-735-3650 / www.visitdelmarvillage.com
Sycuan Pow-Wow   Sep. 6-8
Only registered contestants can participate in the dancing contests, but everyone can take part when an intertribal dance is announced – visitors included.
Time/Place: 5459 Sycuan Rd., El Cajon

Contact: www.crazycrow.com

Julian Grape Stomp Festa   Sep. 7
With ten local wineries offering sips to sample, a wide variety of food and shopping opportunities, great Italian music provided by Roman Holiday, Bocce Ball Court, a little extemporaneous dancing here and there, this will be a party to remember!
Time/Place: 11am-6pm / Menghini Winery: 1150 Julian Orchards Dr.
Contact: 760-765-1857 / www.visitjulian.com

Carlsbad Brewfest   Sep. 7
Celebrates craft beer with tastings from more than 34+ San Diego & national breweries, music, entertainment, games & food vendors.
Time/Place: 12-4:30pm / Holiday Park: 3400 Pio Pico Dr.
Contact: www.carlsbadbrewfest.org

Burgers & Beers   Sep. 7
Try gourmet burgers from more than 20 of San Diegos best restaurants as they compete to win the Best Burger award. Enjoy unlimited beer samples from over 40 of the best breweries.
Time/Place: 1-4pm / Golden Hill Park, San Diego
Contact: www.readerburgersandbeer.com

San Diego Blues Festival   Sep. 7
Features 9 musical acts on two stages. Festival attendees will enjoy local craft beer, cocktails and wine along with specialty food trucks and arts and crafts vendors. Raises much-needed food and funds for the Jacobs & Cushman San Diego Food Bank.
Time/Place: 12-8pm / Embarcadero Marina Park North

Contact: www.sdbluesfest.com

Cardiff Greek Festival   Sep. 7-8
Be Greek for the day and enjoy authentic food, music, live entertainment, dancing, childrens activities and more!
Time/Place: Sat 10am-10pm, Sun 11am-9pm / Saints Constantine and Helen Greek Orthodox Church: 3459 Manchester Avenue
Contact: 760-942-0920 / www.cardiffgreekfestival.com

Aloha Run   Sep. 8
A fun and festive, Hawaiian-themed 5k/10k event. Stick around for a luau party at the finish line with Tahitian dancers, live music, photo opportunities and much more!
Time/Place: 7:15-10am / Tecolote Shores Park: 1292 E. Mission Bay Dr.
Contact: www.thealoharun.com
2019 Chef Throwdown   Sep. 13
Benefiting the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation. Guests will gather on The Dels seaside Windsor Lawn, where they will enjoy chef tastings, both savory and sweet creations, sample craft cocktails and sips from wineries on both sides of the border followed by a three-course gourmet dinner.
Time/Place: 6-11:30pm / Hotel del Coronado

Contact: www.hoteldel.com

San Diego Bayfair   Sep. 13-15
San Diego Bayfairs World Series of Powerboat Racing – a family festival tradition for more than 40 years speeds to the finish line. Beach party, Americas Finest BBQ State Championship on the 14th, live music, action sports, fast boats and craft beer.
Time/Place: Mission Bay Park

Contact: 760-789-8870 / www.sandiegobayfair.org

South Bay Pride Art & Musical Festival   Sep. 14
A day (and evening) of fun for all with live entertainment, local art, food, drinks and more! Childrens Area, live music on two stages, Art in the Park and more!
Time/Place: 12-8pm / Chula Vista Bayside Park

Contact: www.southbaypride.org

Santee Bluegrass Festival   Sep. 14
Fine wines, a bevy of brews, tasty treats, bidding bazaar and live Bluegrass music. Annual fundraiser in the East County and San Diego Communities.
Time/Place: 5:30-9:30pm / Town Center Community Park East
Contact: 619-258-4100 / www.SanteeBluegrassFestival.com

Old Town San Diego Fiestas Patrias   Sep. 14
Our exciting and colorful Fiestas Patrias parade kicks off the festivities that will include the Escaramuzas, traditional women equestrians. Entertainment, crafts, games and demonstrations.
Time/Place: 11am-4pm / Old Town State Historic Park
Contact: www.parks.ca.gov/?page_id=663

OMBAC Classic Longboard Surfing Contest   Sep. 14
All contestants must surf on 1969 or older longboards, 9 or longer, with no leash. Unique awards for top three finishers in each division along with local business SWAG!
Time/Place: 7:30am-4pm / North Side of Crystal Pier

Contact: www.ombac.org

Ironman 70.3 Superfrog   Sep. 15
The challenging course was designed by a group of Navy Seals stationed at the US Navy Seals center in Coronado to both prepare them for the IRONMAN World Championship in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii and to enhance their training.
Time/Place: 7-11am / Imperial Beach Pier

Contact: www.ironman.com
Bonitafest Performing Arts Festival   Sep. 21
Come see the South Bays best show choirs and stage bands, sample delicious food, take in arts and crafts, and the fun!
Time/Place: 9am-4pm / Bonita Vista High School, Chula Vista
Contact: www.facebook.com/events/1127079707480277

San Diego Festival of Beer   Sep. 21
Beer lovers will enjoy the sounds of live music while sampling unlimited and exclusive craft beer tastings, food trucks, vendor booths, lively music, fun games, and more!
Time/Place: 12-5pm / Broadway Pier

Contact: www.sdbeerfest.org

Julian Music Festival   Sep. 21
Celebrate the end of summer with bluegrass to celebrate the festivals roots and Western ballads.
Time/Place: Menghini Winery: 1150 Julian Orchards Road
Contact: www.menghiniwinery.com

Clash at Clairemont   Sep. 21
A star-studded athlete roster, incredible musicians, Vendor Village, food and fun for the whole family.
Time/Place: 11am-6pm / 3401 Clairemont

Contact: www.clashatclairemont.com

Bayside Brew Festival & Spirits   Sep. 21
Over 40 local San Diego and Baja California micro breweries, spirit brands, and food trucks/vendors, with different artists/bands entertaining you throughout the day.
Time/Place: 1-5pm / Pepper Park, National City
Contact: 619-477-9339 / www.baysidebrewfest.com

Taste of South Park   Sep. 21
Guests will also get a taste of the diverse boutiques and shops lining the streets of South Park between bites.
Time/Place: 12-4pm / 30th St. and Fern St. corridor, San Diego
Contact: www.southparksd.com

Be The Change 5K   Sep. 21
Enjoy some of the best views in the city as you run through this scenic waterfront course. Visit our Wellness Fair after the race. 100% of net proceeds benefit Make-A-Wish San Diego, Caterinas Club and the Gary Sinise Foundation.
Time/Place: 3:30-5:30pm / Spanish Landing Park West, San Diego
Contact: www.youngevitybethechange.org

Viking Festival   Sep. 21-22
Meet the Norse Gods and Viking Folk at the Living History Viking Village and Marketplace. Two stages of Live Music and Entertainment. Exotic food and drink. Brew Masters Beers and Mead Garden. Axe throwing, KidZone, Live Viking Combat, Norway Heritage Hall, Games & Competitions.
Time/Place: Sat 10am-8pm, Sun 10am-6pm / 2006 E. Vista Way, Vista
Contact: www.VistaVikingFestival.com

Adams Avenue Street Fair   Sep. 21-22
SoCals largest free two-day music festival. Beer gardens and beer tastings, giant carnival rides, festival foods and more than 300 arts and crafts booths.
Time/Place: Sat 10am-10pm, Sun 10am-6pm / Normal Heights
Contact: 619-282-7329 / www.adamsavenuebusiness.com

Oceanside Harbor Days   Sep. 21-22
Sun, sand, and surf including a costume party for kids 12 and under at Pirate Village; Arts, Crafts and Food booth areas; Nail n Sail Competition; music, a beer garden and more.
Time/Place: 9am-5pm / Oceanside Harbor

Contact: www.oceansidechamber.com

Pacific Islander Festival   Sep. 21-22
Showcases the cultures and customs of Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia with entertainment, food, music and crafts.
Time/Place: 9am-4pm / Mission Bays Ski Beach

Contact: www.pifasandiego.com

San Diego Restaurant Week   Sep. 22-29
Over 180 participating restaurants will offer 3-course prix-fixe dinner menus for $20, $30, $40 or $50 per person and/or two-course prix-fixe lunch menus for $10, $15 or $20 per person.
Contact: www.sandiegorestaurantweek.com

Gaslight Steampunk Expo   Sep. 26-29
A weekend of interactive maker workshops, special presentations, vendors, tea pot racing, tea dueling, fashion shows, games, music, movies and so much more!
Time/Place: 12-5pm / Town & Country Resort Hotel, San Diego
Contact: www.gaslightexpo.org

Poway Rodeo   Sep. 27-28
Bareback and Saddle Bronc Riding, Barrel Racing, Tie Down Roping, Steer Wrestling, Team Roping and Bull Riding. Theres even a Mutton Bustin.
Time/Place: 14336 Tierra Bonita

Contact: 866-776-7633 / www.powayrodeo.com

El Cajon Oktoberfest   Sep. 27-29 & Oct. 4-6
Entertainment provided by our popular band Guggenbach-Buam. Enjoy folk dances, games, and contests, vendor booths and craft stands, and Kids Zone!
Time/Place: South Mollison Avenue

Contact: www.germanclubsandiego.org

Cabrillo Festival   Sep. 28-29
Educational activities, cultural demonstrations and exciting folkloric performances. Food booths with delicious traditional Mexican, Native American, Portuguese and Spanish food. Vendors will showcase their various artistic goods.
Time/Place: 11am-4pm / Naval Base Point Loma

Contact: www.cabrillofestival.org

Encinitas Oktoberfest   Sep. 29
Will feature music, Bavarian dancers, German food and drink, and a street craft faire featuring more than 200 vendors.
Time/Place: 10am-6pm / Mountain Vista Drive and El Camino Real
Contact: www.encinitasoktoberfest.com

Brenda Richardson                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Forbes

It’s about to get even harder for Millennials to buy their first homes.  Nearly 45 million Americans will reach the typical age for first-time home buyers within the next 10 years, 3.1 million more than the past decade, creating stumbling blocks in an already challenging market for those racing for a spot in the starter home market.

The median first-time home buyer in the U.S. is 34 years old, according to online real estate market place Zillow.  There are 44.9 million Americans ages 24-33, or potential future first-time home buyers, compared with 41.8 million people ages 35-44, or potential past first-time home buyers, a 7.4% increase.

For the past several years, a tight supply of starter homes has been a barrier for young potential home buyers.  Starter homes have gained 57.3% in value over the past five years, a median increase of $47,600 while for-sale inventory in this price range has dropped 23.2%, Zillow reports.  Over the same period, the most expensive third of starter homes gained 26% in value, and home in the middle third appreciated 36.8%.

Though the current housing market is cooling off, this coming wave of buyers faces a future starter-home market with now-familiar dynamics:  relatively high demand and low supply, in which the stiff competition among buyers worsens the affordability issues caused by rising price.

“The decision to buy a house is frequently linked to people wanting room for children, maybe wanting to get a yard for their kids,’ say Zillow economist Jeff Tucker.

Other reasons Millennials might want to own a home include security, independence, building equity, stability and financial flexibility, according to a recent survey by Mr. Cooper, the nation’s largest non-bank mortgage servicer and a leading mortgage lender.

But saving for a down payment can be an uphill battle for first-time buyers.  In fact, a recent Zillow analysis found that buyers need 1.5 years longer to save for a down payment than they did 30 years ago and to secure a loan.  Nearly four times as many first-time buyers who obtained a mortgage last year were denied at least once (29%) compared to repeat buyers (8%).

The Mr. Cooper report found that 58% of aspiring homeowners lack of funds for a down payment; nearly half (43%) don’t have a financial plan in place to purchase a home someday; 75% would be willing to work a side job if it meaning owning a home sooner; and 36% would have a roommate if it meant being able to afford a home sooner.

Some markets provide better conditions than others for first-time buyers with a combination of lower home values, strong appreciation forecasts, available supply and a high share of listings with a price cut.

The three best markets for first-time home buyers in the 2019 home shopping season are Tampa, Las Vegas and Phoenix.

“These are relatively affordable markets with median home values well under $300,000,” says Tucker.  “We’ve also seen a large fraction of listings with price cuts.  That’s good news for first-time home buyers.  It means that buyers have a little more bargaining power.”

San Diego and Boston are expected to see the largest jumps in potential first-time buyers.  Both metros will see a nearly 20% increase in the next wave of potential first-time home buyers compared with the previous wave, according to Zillow.

“Boston and San Diego will have the biggest fraction of people hitting that median first-time buyer age, 34, than anywhere else in the country,” says Tucker, adding:  “One caveat there, though, is people are always free to move.  So if people find that as they age into their mid-30s and look around to buy a home, they could find that it might be too expensive to find the home they would like to live in Boston or San Diego.  And so at the metro level, it’s a little harder to predict the future without a crystal ball.  Just because somebody is a 30-year-old in Boston today, you know they will be 34 in four years, but we don’t know where they are going to live in four years.”

Buyers making a transition from renting to homeownership help ease rental demand, which holds down rent-price growth.  But Tucker acknowledges the other side of the coin, saying “if this coming wave of buyers has to compete fiercely for homes to purchase, that could drive up rent prices as well as home values.”

REALTOR MAGAZINE, March 18, 2019

Americans who are self-employed and freelance or contract workers have long had to struggle to qualify for a mortgage compared with those with W2 forms or pay stubs that lenders can use to verify their incomes.  For the self-employed, the mortgage process can be time-consuming and cumbersome.  Lenders often require extra paperwork, such as full documentation of tax returns from the last couple of years (not just the electronic copy submitted to the IRS).  Even after that, the person may still lack an income steady enough to qualify or face extra fees once they are approved.                                                                    However, mortgage financing giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have recently made changes to an automated system that could help more self-employed individuals qualify for a mortgage.  The new technology automates underwriting for loan applicants who are self-employed or have side income.                          “Applications that previously would have taken days to analyze and verify may now take just minutes, thanks to the use of optical character recognition technology that reads tax returns, identifies what qualifies as eligible income, and integrates it into both companies’ electronic underwriting systems,” reports Kenneth Harney, a syndicated real estate columnist for The Washington Post.                                                                                                                            This frees lenders from having to comb through tax documents and allows them to find the information they need in minutes.  The new system now takes three to five days to process, which slashes hundreds of dollars in costs and trims the risk for the lender, Andy Higginbotham, a Freddie Mac senior vice president, told The Washington Post.                                                                                                                                                                                                            There were about 15 million self-employed individuals in 2015 – which equates to about one of every 10 people in the workforce, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Adding automation to the mortgage approval process could give potential home buyers greater confidence as they shop for a home, says Josh Moffitt, president of Silverton Mortgage in Atlanta.  It also could help with meeting contingency-clause financing deadlines in contracts.                                Still, the programs are new, so not all lenders may offer this automated income verification to self-employed applicants yet.  But housing experts say it may be valuable to self-employed individuals to find those that do.

By Dan DiClerico, 2/14/2019

When real estate prices were soaring and the cost of building materials was holding steady, practically any well-planned home improvement project would add value to your home.  In recent months, however, the housing market has started to soften and tariffs are driving up the cost of lumber, steel, and other construction materials. That  means homeowners need to be more judicious in their choice of upgrades to get the best return on the investment.

The just released Remodeling 2019 Cost vs. Value Report is one of the best tools for targeting remodeling projects with maximum bang for the buck.  Below are the top winners, along with tips from HomeAdvisor’s remodeling pros on ways to add even more value to the upgrade.

1.  GARAGE DOOR REPLACEMENT

ROI:  97.5%

The near-perfect return on this project is because it improves both a home’s beauty and functionality.  Faulty garage doors can cause flooding, threaten your home’s energy efficiency and provide access to burglars.  Garage door updates also function as aesthetic upgrades.

HomeAdvisor’s homeowner survey puts the average cost of a garage door installation at $1,080.  It might be worth spending more on a double-layer door with added insulation and a galvanized steel skin if you live in a region with extreme weather.

2.  MANUFACTURED STONE VENEER

ROI:  94.9%

Any project that improves a home’s curb appeal will add value.  Installing stone veneer checks that box in a pretty cost-effective way.  Engineered stone siding mimics the look of pricier, natural options.  It also places less stress on the frame and foundation of your home than heavier alternatives.

The average cost of siding replacement at about $9,625.  A stone veneer can be installed for less, especially if it’s only used as an accent, like along the bottom third of the street-facing facade.

3.  MINOR KITCHEN REMODEL

ROI:  80.5 %

If you’re planning to live in your home for decades, going all in on your dream kitchen makes sense.  but if this isn’t your forever home, a mainly cosmetic kitchen makeover will deliver a much bigger return.  Kitchen overhauls improve the looks and usability of your home.  Replacing old fixtures and appliances will also increase your home’s energy efficiency.

The average kitchen remodeling cost is around $22,200, compared with $52,800 on a large-scale renovation.  You’ll be able to do a lot on the more modest budget, including new countertops, floor, and fixtures, as well as cabinet refacing, which will help give the kitchen a new look.

4.  DECK ADDITION

ROI: 75.6%

Anytime you increase a home’s usable living space, you improve its market value.  A new deck accomplishes this, while also creating a strong connection to the outdoors, a feature that ranks high on most home buyer’s wish list.  Building a new deck costs homeowners an average of about $7,225 on new decks.

Expect the project to cost more if you choose an exotic hardwood for the decking, such as ipe or tigerwood.  Whichever material you choose, be sure to rope off a full-scale mock-up of the deck during the planning phase to make sure the surface is getting the right balance of sun and shade.

5.  ENTRY DOOR REPLACEMENT

ROI: 74.9%

The front door is part of your home’s first impression.  You don’t want it shabby or out of sync with the architecture of the home.  The average cost of an exterior door replacement is just under $1000, though the actual cost will depend on the material.

High-quality steel doors (which price on the higher end) also prevent leaks and boost the insulation of your home.  Decorative flourishes, such as sidelight and a transom window, will add more to the project cost, though they can be worth the splurge given the added curb appeal they’ll deliver.

The Washington Post, Kathy Orton/February 25, 2019

Mortgage rates’ steady decline is making purchasing a home more affordable just as the spring buying season heats up.

According to the latest data released Thursday by Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate average dipped to 4.35 percent with an average 0.5 point.  (Points are fees paid to a lender equal to 1 percent of the loan amount.)  It was 4.37 percent a week ago and 4.40 percent a year ago.  The 30-year fixed rate has fallen 16 basis points since the first of the year.  (A basis point is 0.01 percentage point).

The 15-year fixed-rate average slipped to 3.78 percent with an average 0.4 point.  It was 3.81 percent a week ago and 3.85 percent a year ago.  The five-year adjustable rate average dropped to 3.84 percent with an average 0.3 point.  It was 3.88 a week ago and 3.65 a year ago.

“Today’s news from Freddie Mac should give buyers some optimism this spring as mortgage rates remain at one-year lows,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.  “But this spring won’t be without it’s challenges.  Most markets are continuing to see rising home prices, which means many buyers will have to make some trade-offs in order to close this year.”

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its January meeting this week, which showed central bank officials unsure about the need for interest rate increases in 2019.  Although the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, its decisions influence them.

“Wednesday’s release of the minutes from January’s (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting paints a picture of a more muted outlook for interest rates over the next year,” said Aaron Terrazas, Zillow senior economist.  “All eyes are on a string of Fed speakers over the coming week, when we will also see a slew of housing market data, which was a soft spot in the economy at the end of last year.  However, the January data are unlikely to provide a definitive judgment on the underlying health of the economy.  The market signal in January home sales and permits is likely blurred by the partial federal government shutdown and the polar vortex that hit much of the country mid-month.”

Mixed economic news is putting a damper on rates.  More than 84 percent of purchase borrowers and 81 percent of refinance borrowers were offered rates below 5 percent last week,  according to Lending Tree’s weekly mortgage comparison shopping report.

Bankrate.com, which puts out a weekly mortgage rate trend index, found nearly two-thirds of the experts it surveyed say rates will remain relatively stable in the coming week.  Michael Becker, branch manager at Sierra Pacific Mortgage, is one who predicts rates will hold steady.

“Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury and have similarly been consolidating with small differences in rates on a day-to-day and week-to-week basis,” Becker said.  “At some point, rates will break out of this tight range and we will see either a spike or drop in rates.  If global economic concerns dominate markets, then we will see a drop in rates.  If optimism based on progress on trade wars or central bank dovishness prevails in the markets, then there will be a spike in rates.  For now, I think rates continue their consolidation pattern and that mortgage rates will be flat in the coming week.

“Meanwhile, mortgage applications have finally started to pick up, according to the latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.  The market composite index – a measure of total loan application volume – increased 3.6 percent from a week earlier.  the refinance index rose 6 percent from the previous week, while the purchase index grew 2 percent.

The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 41.7 percent all of the applications.

“After slumping over the past month, purchase mortgage applications reversed course, rising nearly 2 percent over the past week and 2.5 percent from a year ago,” said Bob Broeksmit, MBA president and CEO.  “With mortgage rates lower than in previous months and holding steady, lenders are indicating that prospective buyers may be eager to start their home search before the spring buying season gets underway.

San Diego home price increases fall behind nation, California

By Phillip Molnar, Union Tribune, January 29, 2019

San Diego home price gains continued to slow in November compared to most of the nation and California, said the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices released Wednesday.

Resale home prices in the San Diego metropolitan area increased 3.3 percent in the year, the third slowest of the 20 cities covered by the index. National home prices were up 5.2 percent in a year, with Las Vegas leading the pack with a 12 percent gain.

Home price increases in November were slower year-over-year nationwide, with many analysts attributing higher mortgage interest rates leading to decreasing affordability — especially in costly areas.

Los Angeles metro area prices increased 4.4 percent in a year, also below the national average. San Francisco was only slightly above with a 5.6 percent yearly gain.

Alan Gin, economist at the University of San Diego, said it is important to note that prices are still rising. However, he said home costs already being near record highs means there’s not much wiggle room for potential buyers.

“A lot of people right now are just priced out of the market,” he said. “That’s why you’re seeing sales slow, as well.”

Gin said other parts of the San Diego economy are still strong, especially with a low unemployment rate, so the region’s slowed home price increases might be an aberration.

Still, declining affordability of potential homebuyers in San Diego County is of concern to some business leaders who see themselves competing with lower cost states. Gilman Bishop, principal of local development firm Bishop & Company, said workers who continue to stay in the region will face commutes farther and farther away.

“This hurts recruitment and retention, and makes our region less competitive overall,” he said.

The indices evaluate home prices by more than just price, tracking repeat sales of identical single-family houses as they turn over through the years. It is a favorite of economists, who use it to get a more complete view of the market instead of just the median home price.

A slowdown in sales, down for six months in a row year-over-year for San Diego County, will continue to slow price appreciation as the inventory of homes for sale continues to build, wrote Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, in an analysis of November’s index.

Yet he said it is unlikely the national home price would actually decline because of a shortage of moderately priced homes, as well as a strong job market.

“In 2019, home prices in many markets look to trail income growth for the first time since 2012,” he wrote. “That is a healthy development of keeping housing affordability in check.”

The median price for a resale home in San Diego County was $605,000 in November. The interest rate for a fixed rate, 30-year loan was 4.81 percent at the end of November, said Mortgage News Daily, up from 3.98 percent a year earlier. That means the monthly cost for a median priced home (assuming 20 percent down) went up around $237 in a year.

Since November, mortgage rates have gone down. On Nov. 2, rates were around 5 percent but were down Tuesday to 4.61 percent, meaning home sales could pick up with the lower rates.

“Throughout the recovery, home shoppers have proven to be both remarkably sensitive to short-term volatility in rates and markets more broadly,” said Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas, “and also to have short memories once things stabilize, however temporarily.”

The highest annual price gains in November were in Las Vegas (12 percent), Phoenix (8.1 percent) and Seattle (6.3 percent) The lowest gains were Chicago, at 3.1 percent, and Washington, D.C., at 2.7 percent.